Statistical Probabilities
' |image= |series= |production=40510-533 |producer(s)= |story= Pam Pietroforte |script= René Echevarria |director= Anson Williams |imdbref=tt0708606 |guests=Jeffrey Combs as Weyoun, Tim Ransom as Jack, Jeannetta Arnette as Dr. Loews, Hilary Shepard as Lauren, Michael Keenan as Patrick, Casey Biggs as Damar, Faith Salie as Sarina Douglas |previous_production=Resurrection |next_production=The Magnificent Ferengi |episode=DS9 S06E09 |airdate=22 November 1997 |previous_release=(DS9) Resurrection (Overall) Random Thoughts |next_release=(DS9) The Magnificent Ferengi (Overall) Concerning Flight |story_date(s)=Unknown |group="N"}}(2374) |previous_story=Random Thoughts |next_story=Concerning Flight }} =Summary= Four genetically engineered people under the care of a Starfleet psychiatrist Lieutenant Karen Lowes have been brought to Deep Space 9 to work with Bashir. They were all genetically enhanced as kids and all placed in an institute. They’re also all a bit nutty: Jack talks a mile a minute, Lauren lounges about being flirtatious and sedcutive, Patrick is very childlike, and Sarina doesn’t talk at all. Jack at one point yanks Lauren’s padd away—she’s staring at Bashir’s service record, convinced that he’s in love with her—and jumps on it. When Lowes asks for the padd, he deliberately hands it to her cracked-side-down so it cuts her palm. Bashir talks with them for a bit. Jack is hostile and motor-mouthed, making accusations, bouncing from topic to topic, and expressing very real (and very justified) resentment at the Federation’s treatment of genetically enhanced people—though it’s obvious that these four were not put away directly because of their enhancements but because of the effect the genetic engineering had on their ability to function. After a dinner at the captain’s quarters, Bashir discusses the foursome, and the difficulties they’ve had. It’s interrupted by Jack, who has managed to gain access to the comm systems. Apparently there’s a high-pitched whine that only the four of them—and Bashir—can hear. Jack asks for help in getting rid of it or he’ll snap Sarina’s neck. O’Brien shows up and fixes the problem—which Patrick diagnoses just by listening—just as the latest propaganda speech from Damar is about to go live. Bashir and O’Brien and the foursome all watch Damar’s speech, and Jack, Lauren, and Patrick—who have never heard of Damar before and are only vaguely aware of the political situation—immediately divine that Damar is a puppet, that he’s saying words he doesn’t want to say, that he’s sad, that he doesn’t sleep, that he recently killed someone close to him, and that he works for a dark knight he can’t control. O’Brien and Bashir are impressed to say the least. Damar’s speech also included a call to the Federation to talk peace so that the hostilities can end. To that end, Weyoun and Damar are coming to DS9, with Sisko ordered to sit across the table and hear their proposal. The Dominion also wants the negotiations publicly broadcast to show that their desire for peace is genuine. Bashir is thrilled because the “Jack Pack” can’t get enough about the war ever since they saw Damar’s speech, and the doctor is running out of material to give them. And it’s also got the foursome engaged in a project for the first time, and Bashir doesn’t want to lose that. Kira meets Weyoun and Damar at the airlock. Kira advises Weyoun to not pull his we’re-all-friends-here act on Sisko as he’s not in the mood. Damar responds by snapping that they’re on a mission of peace, and he should damn well get in the mood, apparently missing the irony in stating that when he, very obviously, is not in the mood, either. After the first session, the Jack Pack study the holographic recording of it. Weyoun offers to redefine the borders based on what people are currently holding, including the Dominion giving up several star systems. Jack, when listening to Weyoun speak in his native tongue rather than the translation (he learned the Vorta language that morning) notices that Weyoun is using a more passive voice than would be expected from someone making a request, and Patrick notices that they avoid looking at the Kabrel system. They obviously want the Kabrel system for something—and it’s Sarina who figures it out. There’s a chemical in the fungus on Kabrel I that can be used to manufacture ketracel-white, something the Dominion still can’t do in the Alpha Quadrant, apparently. Bashir and the Jack Pack provide several projections and recommendations to Sisko. They say they should accept the proposal, even though it’ll allow the Dominion to produce white in the AQ, simply because the alternative would be for the Dominion to make a huge-ass push before they run out of existing white stores. If they let them have Kabrel, the allies can regroup and wait for the Romulans to enter the fight, which they predict will happen in a year or so. That will combine with tensions between the Cardassians and the Dominion erupting to make things better for the allies. Sisko is impressed with their projections and agrees to suggest that Starfleet Command accept their recommendations. This is cause for celebration, and they throw an impromptu party. When O’Brien comes in to replace the power coupling, he makes Patrick cry, and then Lauren and Jack figure out that O’Brien misses Bashir because he’s spending so much time with them. They encourage Bashir to go play with O’Brien, which results in some serious teasing of O’Brien by Bashir. But they go ahead and play darts in Quark’s. Starfleet Command is sufficiently impressed that they’ve decided to allow the Jack Pack access to classified information. However, they have already done a full projection, and there’s no way the allies can beat the Dominion. Bashir goes to Sisko with a recommendation that the Federation surrender. Sisko is less than receptive to this notion, even when Bashir gives him the long-term projection that a rebellion will eventually overthrow the Dominion and a new Federation will be born. But Sisko is not willing to just roll over because a statistical analysis says he should. He wants the Jack Pack’s help in winning the war, not telling him how to lose it. Bashir is disgusted, as nine hundred billion people will die if the war continues, but Sisko won’t ask a generation of Alpha Quadrant denizens to give up their freedom voluntarily. Bashir decides to show it to O’Brien, but he takes Sisko’s side and reminds Bashir that someone can disagree with him and not be an idiot. So Bashir decides to prove his point by playing dabo and losing his shirt and going on and on about how they can’t possibly win. As expected, Starfleet Command rejects the recommendation. Jack refuses to let nine hundred billion people die—if they leak Starfleet’s troop movements to Weyoun, the Dominion can conquer the AQ in a matter of weeks, and only two billion people will die. That’s a lot of lives saved. When Bashir rejects this notion, Jack slugs him. When he wakes up, he’s tied to a chair, the computer’s voice interface is down, and the only person in the room with him is Sarina, who doesn’t talk. But Bashir convinces her that if they’re arrested and charged with treason, she’ll never see Jack, Patrick, or Lauren again. Jack contacts Weyoun and calls for a meeting. Weyoun is intrigued to say the least. However, while the trio are en route, they’re intercepted by Bashir and a security guard. Meanwhile, Odo shows up at the cargo bay to inform Weyoun and Damar that there’s no meeting. Sisko isn’t going to press charges, but they’re all going back to the Institute. Bashir points out that Jack’s entire plan to inform the Dominion was derailed because he didn’t anticipate Sarina freeing Bashir. And if he couldn’t see that, what else might they have missed? O’Brien tries to cheer Bashir up a bit, and then Bashir goes to play dabo, promising Quark that he won’t cause a scene this time. He makes a really crazy bet and wins. The Jack Pack refuse to board their transport until Bashir says goodbye. Sarina actually smiles at him, Lauren gives him a big smooch, and Jack makes him promise to listen if they come up with a way to defeat the Dominion. (Patrick’s still just generally happy.) =Errors and Explanations= Nit Central # Chris Thomas on Friday, December 18, 1998 - 8:52 pm: It's strange how the leader of Cardassia is only referred to as a Gul, usually the leader or captain of a ship. You'd think they'd have another word for the person in charge. Something like Kron Dukat or Kron Damar, indicating who the big boss was. Murray Leeder on Saturday, December 19, 1998 - 11:32 am: It was addressed in Ties... that Dukat kept the Gul moniker to seem unpretentious. Perhaps Damar did the same. Corey Hines on Saturday, December 19, 1998 - 1:25 pm: This was until "Tears of the Prophets", when a Cardassian officer called Damar "Legate". # BrianB on Friday, April 16, 1999 - 4:22 am: If all Lauren does is aggressively flirt, why is she in an institute? Why is she a misfit? She doesn't act like she's dangerous or unstable. Maybe it's because she hangs with Jack. Seniram 16:34, October 18, 2017 (UTC) She may be dangerous and/or unstable without acting that way. =Notes= =Sources= Category:Episodes Category:Deep Space Nine